Heading into the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, meteorologists and disaster preparedness agencies warned that the upcoming months could bring above-average storm activity. After the destructive 2017 season, which included Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, the public was on high alert. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its initial seasonal forecast in May 2018, estimating a 70% likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin. Of those, between 5 and 9 were expected to develop into hurricanes, and 1 to 4 could become major hurricanes—Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of 111 mph or more. These projections were based on long-term climate trends and real-time environmental indicators, such as sea surface temperatures and atmospheric wind shear.
Historically, an average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. NOAA’s 2018 forecast placed a 35% chance on an above-normal season, 40% on a near-normal season, and 25% on a below-normal season. Two major climate factors shaped these probabilities: the potential formation of a weak El Niño in the Pacific, which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, and the observation of near-average sea surface temperatures in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
As summer progressed, NOAA released a revised outlook in August 2018 that slightly scaled back expectations. The updated forecast projected 9 to 13 named storms, with 4 to 7 becoming hurricanes and only 0 to 2 reaching major hurricane status. This adjustment came in response to evolving atmospheric conditions, such as stronger-than-expected wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and signs of increasing El Niño development. Despite this lowered outlook, the unpredictability of tropical weather systems left the potential for impactful storms very much on the table.
By the season’s end in November, the actual numbers revealed that 2018 had been more active than the August revision had suggested. The Atlantic produced 15 named storms, of which 8 became hurricanes, and 2 intensified into major hurricanes. These results aligned more closely with the original May outlook, suggesting that while NOAA’s forecasting models were generally accurate in scope, short-term climate shifts can complicate mid-season predictions. One of the key metrics used to evaluate the energy and duration of storms, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), also came in higher than anticipated, further underscoring the season’s overall strength.
The 2018 season will be remembered most for Hurricanes Florence and Michael, both of which caused devastating impacts in the United States. Florence made landfall in North Carolina in mid-September as a Category 1 hurricane, but it stalled over the region, dumping torrential rainfall for days. The resulting flooding was catastrophic, with some areas receiving more than 30 inches of rain. Rivers overflowed, entire communities were submerged, and infrastructure was severely damaged. Despite Florence’s relatively modest wind speed at landfall, its slow movement and immense rainfall caused over $24 billion in damages and led to more than 50 deaths.
Hurricane Michael, on the other hand, struck quickly and with immense force. Making landfall on October 10 near Mexico Beach, Florida, as a Category 5 hurricane, Michael was the strongest storm ever recorded to hit the Florida Panhandle and the third most intense hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States, based on barometric pressure. With sustained winds of 160 mph, Michael obliterated entire neighborhoods, shredded forests, and left a trail of destruction from Florida to Georgia and beyond. The storm caused an estimated $25 billion in damage and took at least 74 lives.
The scale of damage from these two storms highlighted a crucial reality: even in a season that may not be record-breaking in terms of total storm count, just one or two major landfalls can define the entire year. The public response to these storms also revealed the ongoing need for improved infrastructure, better early-warning systems, and resilient home construction. Federal agencies like FEMA were deployed to support recovery efforts, but thousands of homeowners faced prolonged displacement and months of rebuilding.
Looking back, the 2018 hurricane season served as a stark reminder that preparation should not hinge solely on seasonal predictions. Despite a mid-season forecast that suggested a quieter outcome, the Atlantic basin still produced two of the costliest and most destructive storms in recent history. Whether it’s an above-average season or a seemingly “normal” one, every year presents the potential for significant impact. Ensuring that your home is fortified against the worst-case scenario is not just prudent—it’s essential.
If you’re still relying on outdated windows or unreinforced entryways, don’t wait for the next storm to take action. Contact us today to schedule a free consultation and learn how our custom impact window and door solutions can provide peace of mind for you and your family. With storms increasing in strength and unpredictability, preparation is your best defense.